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December Rate Cut 50/50 Probability

By mike, Dec 06 in blog with 0 comments

Economists are divided on whether borrowers will get a second interest rate cut in as many months on Tuesday.

Seven of the 14 economists surveyed by AAP say the RBA will cut the cash rate to 4.25 per cent from 4.5 per cent on December 6.

On Melbourne Cup day, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate from 4.75 per cent, saying that recent information suggested inflation had been contained.

With inflation no longer a problem, the bias for the RBA is now firmly leaning towards rate cuts, with 10 of the 14 economists forecasting rate cuts by the middle of 2012.

Citigroup head of economics Paul Brennan is expecting the RBA to cut rates on Tuesday, despite expectations of strong economic growth in the September quarter.

"We see this as a policy of least regret given that the outlook for global growth has continued to weaken in the past month to well below trend," Mr Brennan said.

"We see scope to lower the cash rate to the bottom of the neutral range over the next few months, which would imply a cash rate of four per cent over the next three months."

The biggest risk to economic growth comes from Europe, which may well go into recession, or start another financial crisis, as several members of the euro struggle to meet debt repayments.

There are also local risks to economic growth.

In the past month the RBA, Treasury and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have cut economic growth forecasts for 2012.

In addition to that, official figures for October showed a 10.7 per cent fall in building approvals and retail spending only rising 0.2 per cent.

On the other hand Australia’s mining boom is still going strong, with the sector making its biggest ever contribution to economic growth.

Nomura Australia chief economist Stephen Roberts said he doesn’t expect the cash rate to move for the foreseeable future unless something bad happens overseas.

"My forecast is that they are going to leave it at 4.5 per cent," he said.

"I’m assuming they will hold it neutral all the way through to the end of 2012 but my proviso is if Europe generally does go to hell in a handbasket, then they can drop interest rates a long way."

NAB senior economist Spiros Papadopoulos said the RBA won’t cut on Tuesday but by early next year the pressure will build for another rate cut.

"Obviously there’s a risk that they might cut interest rates next week, given everything that’s been happening offshore in the last couple of weeks," he said.

"On balance, given the fact that the domestic economy has been holding up okay we don’t think they need to rush in to cutting rates."

Story source: www.ninemsn.com.au

About the author

Mike Andrew has been working with the Internet and small business for over 12 years. Mike has been a keynote speaker at conventions and seminars and conducted social media training sessions all over the world. Mike has an extensive media background having worked in electronic media for over 30 years. Mike specialises in social media and Internet marketing strategy, SEO techniques and search engine marketing campaigns. His articles appear on numerous blogs around the web as well as national magazines.